Toomey Versus Sestak: More Pennsylvania Poll Numbers

...and it continues to look like good news (or better news at least) for Representative Joe Sestak (D):
The race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat is now a statistical dead heat with Republican Pat Toomey getting 48 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 43 percent likely voter lead for Toomey, a former congressman, in a September 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Toomey is beating Sestak 88 - 8 percent among Republicans and 56 - 35 percent among independent voters. But Sestak is winning 89 - 7 percent among Democrats. Thirteen percent of Toomey's voters and 9 percent of Sestak backers say they might change their mind before Election Day. The 5 percent of undecided voters includes 9 percent of independent voters.

"Pennsylvania is a blue state and Democrats there have begun to come home," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "They are more engaged than they were earlier in the race. This is not unusual, especially in off-year elections. Democrats often engage later in the campaign than do Republicans. The political environment is more favorable now for them, as evidenced by President Barack Obama's improved, but still decidedly negative, job approval rating."
I disagree on the "Pennsylvania is a blue state" bit though. We're not. Trust me. James Carville said it best (albeit without tact).

I had previously been more-than-somewhat skeptical of Sestak-favorable polling because it was primarily being generated by Democratic-leaning pollsters such as PPP Polling. But, yesterday we had Muhlenberg/Morning Call, and now today we see Quinnipiac University polling and I think that it is difficult to ignore that the Sestak campaign is making something of a comeback. Again.

That said, I am still sticking with my analysis from yesterday:
[N]o matter how many polling outfits swing favorability to Joe Setak, I think that this election is Pat Toomey's to lose.
Shhh. Can you hear that? I think that I can hear B-Diddy phoning in another donation to the Toomey campaign right now...

Photo: AP