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A Friendly Reminder: Where The GOP Was Four Years Ago

There has been much speculation of late as to the candidate who emerge as the Republican Party's nominee for President in the 2012 election. This is for good reason, as the Republican primary is just starting to heat up.

BUT, for those of you who think that "Candidate X will definitely be the nominee in 2012", I've got a metaphorical bucket of cold water to throw on your party: You are probably wrong.

If you'll remember, at this point four years ago in the Republican primary, John McCain was not even remotely close to gaining his party's nomination:



In fact McCain was in third place behind Rudy Giuliani and Tommy Thompson (?!), Mitt Romney was in fourth and Mike Huckabee was a distant fifth place.

Of course, we all know how the final Republican field shook out:



.... not so good for Giuliani or Thompson, who had been leading the pack only months earlier.

Right now, the "conventional wisdom" is that Mitt Romney, Rick Perry or Michele Bachmann will eventually win the Republican nomination for President. HOWEVER, if use 2008 as a model for 2012, then there is a good chance that Sarah Palin will be the party's nominee (because she is currently polling third behind Romney and Perry), and Congressman Ron Paul will be the runner-up (because he is currently polling fifth, just as Huckabee was at this point four years ago).

I can hear Fury cheering from here.

But I digress. The point in all of this is that nobody knows what will happen several months from now. Who knows? Maybe that Ron Paul supporter who is seeking to confirm rumors about Rick Perry will get his confirmation. Perhaps some bombshell about Michele Bachmann will surface that will disqualify her from being the party's nominee.

Any way you look at it, it is still over five months until February 6th (the first of the Republican primary caucus elections), which is an eternity in a political campaign.

So, when you encounter someone who claims to know who the GOP nominee will be, simply point them my way.