My 2012 Election Prediction, In Review

So, TPW and I stayed up last night until the networks projected that President Obama would win in Ohio, and called the race in favor of the President. I have to admit, this happened much earlier than I had anticipated. My "Patriot Nachos" (heh) gave me a bit of indigestion, as I ate them much later than my usual dinnertime. This led to a night of semi-restless sleep, while visions of the second term of the Obama administration danced about in my head.


First off, I have to admit that I'm pretty stoked at my prediction of the outcome. Here's the rundown:

My prediction:

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What happened:

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I focused much of my attention on the 'deal-breakers' for the Romney campaign: Florida and Ohio. I correctly called Ohio and, when the votes are final, I am confident that Florida will also fall into President Obama's column.

I also correctly guessed that the President would keep other swing states such as Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. The only one that I missed was the Commonwealth of Virginia. I didn't see that one coming...

As Vast pointed out in the comments, I gave North Carolina to the President and New Mexico to Governor Romney. I responded that this was an oversight on my part, as those states should have been reversed. But I decided to leave my original prediction stand, to see where the cards would fall.

Even though I meant the opposite outcomes in North Carolina and New Mexico, my prediction was still incorrect in only three states. If Florida goes to Obama in the near future, I will have only misjudged New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia. That's not too shabby for a guy who is, errr, a bit rusty.

And I think that Florida is in the bag.

Lots of other stuff went down last night as well -- and I'll get to some of those items later. For now, I hope that your election hangover isn't too bad. I have to get back to work.