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Nate Silver: Obama Has 86% Chance Of Re-Election


Following a similar theme as my last post, Nate Silver -- of FiveThirtyEight fame -- is predicting a win for President Obama. And not just in the Electoral College.

But why? Well, Silver thinks (as I do) that Frankenstorm has shown the President in a non-campaign-y light: a strong leader:
If President Obama wins re-election on Tuesday, the historical memory of the race might turn on the role played by Hurricane Sandy.

Already, some analysts are describing the storm as an “October surprise” that allowed Mr. Obama to regain his footing after stumbling badly in the first presidential debate and struggling to get back on course. Some Republicans seem prepared to blame a potential defeat for Mitt Romney on the storm, and the embrace of Mr. Obama by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and other public officials.

The theory has some appeal. The last three days of polling have brought what is almost certainly Mr. Obama’s strongest run of polling since the first presidential debate in Denver. Mr. Obama led in the vast majority of battleground-state polls over the weekend. And increasingly, it is hard to find leads for Mr. Romney in national surveys — although several of them show a tie.
And cue the magnificent chart:


IF President Obama wins re-election tomorrow -- and that's a big 'if' folks -- I don't think that the entirety of the credit can be given to the storm (or Chris Christie). BUT, it has definitely played a role in the news cycle for the past week -- pushing the emphasis away from Mitt Romney.

Conversely, IF Mitt Romney loses his bid for the presidency, you cannot pin the entirety of that failure on the storm. If Republicans are facing yet another loss to Barack Obama, there will likely be some soul-searching needed in the Grand Old Party.

We will see.

In all of this only one thing is for sure; Pop some popcorn and get comfy. It's going to be a late night tomorrow night.