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On Dick Morris' Electoral Prediction



Morris claimed:
  • Romney would get 325 Electoral College votes
  • Romney would carry the states of Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin
  • Romney would win by more than a five-point margin in the popular vote
Of course, President Obama won the election with 303 Electoral votes compared to Romney's 206*. Additionally, the President carried Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The only states that Morris correctly predicted were Indiana and North Carolina (Florida is yet to be determined). Lastly, the President won the the popular vote by a margin of two percent.

Man, Dick Morris was all kinds of wrong.

Of course, it's not Morris' fault:
The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.

In 2012, 13% of the vote was cast by blacks. In 04, it was 11%. This year, 10% was Latino. In ’04 it was 8%. This time, 19% was cast by voters under 30 years of age. In ’04 it was 17%. Taken together, these results swelled the ranks of Obama’s three-tiered base by five to six points, accounting fully for his victory.

I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.

But the more proximate cause of my error was that I did not take full account of the impact of hurricane Sandy and of Governor Chris Christie’s bipartisan march through New Jersey arm in arm with President Obama. Not to mention Christe’s fawning promotion of Obama’s presidential leadership.
Well, he had me until the fourth paragraph there -- where blames Hurricane Sandy and Chris Christie's "fawning promotion" of President Obama as the "more proximate cause" of his error.

Just... wow.

If I'm Fox News (or any other media outlet for that matter), I have to ask myself if I want to ever have this guy on my network again. Every prediction that he ever makes from now on will have to have an asterisk beside it. At the very least.

* this number could change, depending on the results of Florida's voting